TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/111191/1111002.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 10.7 KB | 288 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 60

MIDDLE EAST

How to Follow the Talks


Is your mind reeling from all the claims and counterclaims?
What's really going on in the peace process? Here's a guide
to help sort it out.


    ROAD TO ????

    Madrid was the easy part. Delegates had only to stake out
a position, not cede an inch of ground. The course toward peace
is pockmarked with sandpits, potholes and booby traps. If you
plan to stay tuned, be ready for a long, long siege, marked by
proclamations of self-sacrifice and ritualistic outbursts of
indignation. And be wary of the press leaks of success/failure
that are sure to follow. Any real bargaining will be behind
closed doors, and the only reliable evidence of progress will be
public statements of mutual commitment.

    PALESTINIANS: This group, more a coalition than a team,
calls Jerusalemite Faisal al-Husseini the "head of the
delegation," though Dr. Haidar Abdul-Shafi is the group's formal
leader. And behind them still is P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat.

    SYRIA: The toughest guys at the talks. Although English-
speaking Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa is the front man,
make no mistake: President Hafez Assad will be calling the shots
-- and the other Arabs will listen.

    ISRAEL: Yitzhak ("Not One Inch") Shamir is the hard-line
leader of a solidly hard-line team. But Deputy Foreign Minister
Benjamin ("Nightline") Netanyahu, who speaks perfect American,
will put the velvet spin on Israel's positions.

    U.S.: President Bush insists that he will be a "catalyst,"
not an imposer of solutions. But if he and James Baker do not
provide concrete proposals that enable the parties to make
incremental concessions, talks will stall -- and they may feel
some heat for the failure.


    PARTY LINES

    In Madrid the delegates presented very tough -- and very
familiar -- opening positions:

    Palestinians: Want an independent state, in confederation
with Jordan, with East Jerusalem as its capital. But coming
into the conference, they have dropped their long-standing
refusal to accept self-rule over daily affairs in the West Bank
and Gaza as a first step. As an immediate sign of good faith,
they want a freeze on Jewish settlements in the occupied
territories. They have vowed to stick out the talks.

    Syria: The most truculent -- wants Israel to cede "every
inch of Arab land occupied by the Israelis by war and force,"
particularly the Golan Heights, in return for a state of
nonbelligerency. Damascus refuses to participate in regional
talks until Israel demonstrates a willingness to return occupied
territory. Assad has vowed to strike no separate deals with
Israel, and is exhorting other Arab delegations to take the same
position.

    Lebanon: Wants Israel to withdraw its forces from its
self-proclaimed "security zone" in southern Lebanon, dissolve
its proxy militia, the South Lebanon Army, and release some 300
Arab prisoners.

    Jordan: Wants a settlement for the Palestinians in the
West Bank so they do not wind up staking their homeland on the
East Bank in Jordan. It also would like to reach a
comprehensive agreement on water-sharing rights.

    Israel: Wants peace treaties without giving back any
occupied land. Shamir has made the future of Jerusalem
non-negotiable and has ruled out a freeze on settlements and
withdrawal from all occupied territories. But Israel is ready
to adopt an interim five-year plan that would grant Palestinians
limited self-rule while maintaining control of the land,
security arrangements and foreign affairs. Could bolt if it
feels overly pressured.


    GIVE & TAKE

    Real bargaining has to begin somewhere. Where to look:

    Palestinians: The U.S. is prodding them to suspend the
intifadeh in exchange for a freeze of Jewish settlements. Shamir
has already rejected such a scheme, but might find it hard to
resist if international pressure mounts. To get around the
impasse, the Palestinians might agree to a joint authority, with
Israel, to control public lands in the occupied territories
while the talks continue. That would give Palestinians a
temporary -- but not permanent -- veto over new settlements.

    Syria: Might be persuaded to reduce its armed presence in
Lebanon, provided Israel does the same. Numerous plans for
demilitarizing the Golan Heights exist that could give de jure
sovereignty back to Syria but leave real control of the Golan
in the hands of international peacekeepers.

    Israel: Might consider demilitarizing portions of the
Golan Heights if the U.S. provides sufficient security
guarantees. If pressure at home and abroad grows strong enough,
even Shamir might be forced to halt settlements to keep the
talks going. In Lebanon a precondition for withdrawal would be
the disarmament of remaining local militias.


    GOOD SIGNS

    Middle East sands have yet to shift. Still, there are
reasons to hope:

    The moderate cast of the Palestinian delegation -- its
members are highly educated, professional, nonrhetorical --
suggests seriousness about carving out some sort of
self-government, perhaps short of an independent state. Arafat
has stated, "Anything these Palestinian leaders accept, I will
accept."

    Without Moscow as a patron, Syria desperately needs
Western trade and investment to rebuild its economy and may bend
so as not to alienate Washington.

    The Saudi presence at Madrid was a pleasant surprise.
Normally they stay home if the outcome of a meeting is in doubt.

    Bush declined to prescribe any settlement, giving the U.S.
maximum maneuvering room for avoiding showdowns. But he did set
a useful deadline for "interim self-government" by the
Palestinians to be achieved within a year.


    SYMBOLISM

    And They're Off. They came. They saw. They conquered their
mutual repulsion long enough to sit down together. They accepted
the T-shaped table configuration, seating assignments, speaking
times without much fuss. No one stormed out over procedures.

    Still Too Far to Go. What you did not see between the
Arabs and Israelis: a formal handshake. A smile. A greeting in
the other's language. Eye contact. The sharing of a meal. An
exchange of gifts. The display of national flags. The playing
of national anthems.

    Nuance Counts, but Not Too Much. Analysts made much of it
when an Israeli functionary gave copier paper to the
Palestinian delegation, and the Jordanians lent a hammer to the
Israelis. But constant temperature taking can lead to wrong
conclusions.

    The Grand Gesture. Israelis yearn for another Sadat, who
will break the psychological barrier between Arabs and Jews
with a grand gesture like the Egyptian's 1977 visit to
Jerusalem. But there were very few visionaries among the tough
pragmatists.


    STUMBLING BLOCKS

    THE REAL GAP is in attitude: each party comes with a deep
reservoir of distrust. Few Arabs or Israelis believe that the
talks will succeed.

    LOCATION could sabotage the talks early on. Israel wants
them to alternate between Israel and the Arab states as a form
of de facto mutual recognition. Syria wants to stay in Madrid
to emphasize the international umbrella. Palestinians veto the
occupied territories, while Jerusalem rules out East Jerusalem.

    JEWISH SETTLEMENTS rising in the occupied territories
could be the first pivotal issue. Both the Arabs and the U.S.
consider a halt to new building essential as a sign of good
faith. Shamir is determined not to yield, but might eventually
be cajoled to accept a freeze as a lever for extracting larger
Arab concessions.

    THE $10 BILLION LOAN GUARANTEES that Israel expects from
Washington come January to help resettle Soviet Jews could play
a key role. The U.S. has linked the money to a halt in new
settlements. The Arabs see the decision as a barometer of U.S.
willingness to pressure Israel.

    ELECTIONS in the U.S. and Israel could put negotiations on
hold until both are completed in November 1992.


    THE HOST WITH THE MOST

    The U.S. is plainly the sponsor that counts. All parties
believe that no real progress can be made without continued
pressure, prodding and prompting from Washington. A recent
report by the U.S. Institute of Peace concluded, "Only when the
President is active . . . do the parties take a U.S. mediation
effort seriously." Is Bush up to that? His aides are already
sweating bullets over falling polls that say the President
spends too much time on foreign affairs while America rots. The
U.S. strategy: remain attentive and hope that the mere act of
talking will create a chemistry for compromise among enemies.


    FELLOW TRAVELER

    Though technically a co-sponsor of the peace talks,
Gorbachev could do little better than bask in Bush's reflected
glory. Moscow's role was largely played when it urged Syria to
the bargaining table. Still, the Soviets might get some useful
trade and keep a toe on the world stage.


    BUZZ WORDS

    LAND FOR PEACE

    The basic trade, enshrined in the purposefully vague U.N.
Resolution 242, endorsed by the U.S.

    Palestinians: Give us an independent homeland, we'll stop
throwing rocks.

    Syria: Give us the Golan Heights, we'll pretend not to
hate you.

    Israel: We already gave land -- Sinai in 1982. Now give us
peace.

    TERRITORIAL COMPROMISE

    Variation on land for peace, the favored option of the
mainstream Israeli left: we'll give back some land, but never
return to the insecure pre-1967 borders.

    COMPREHENSIVE SETTLEMENT

    Arabs: No separate, bilateral agreements, as happened at
Camp David.

    Israel: Comprehensive? Sure. But one bilateral step at a
time.

    AUTONOMY

    Common usage: A way station between continued Israeli
occupation and Palestinian independence.

    Palestinians: A sellout of their interests.

    Israel: A gradual recognition of the rights of individual
Palestinians. Cynics' translation: "Local authority over how
many goats can be raised per hectare."

    INTERIM AUTHORITY

    Common usage: Something more than autonomy but less than
a Palestinian state.

    Palestinians: A large degree of self-rule that includes
control over land, legislation and water resources and a reduced
Israeli security presence.

    Israel: Houseguests with improved bathroom and kitchen
privileges.

    U.S.: An unspecified measure of control over economic and
political decisions.

    HONEST BROKER

    Arabs: A U.S. interlocutor who pressures Israel.

    Israel: A U.S. mediator who serves as a partner.


By Jill Smolowe. Reported by Lisa Beyer and J.F.O. McAllister/
Madrid.